are searches better than polls at predicting political victories?
Category: Girlawhirl : Entertainment
Apr 24, 2008

Girlawhirl likes to stay on top of what's going on in the 2008 Presidential race. She finds it very interesting to know who's ahead in the polls, and by how much. But she's often wondered where these facts and figures come from and whether random phone calls and exit polls provide a true sampling of what Americans are thinking. Girlawhirl wants to know what's really on the minds of voters...

So instead of relying solely on political polls, Girlawhirl's doing her own research to find out what's really on the minds of internet savvy Americas, by checking out what they are searching. Are voters more interested in learning about Barack Obama's policies, or Hillary Clinton's voting record? Maybe John McCain's history as a POW sparks interest.

 

What people are searching for has been touted as a new window into the psyche of America. Several search engines make their top search information available to the public, and with the quantity of Americans searching it could be said that “search behaviors” are more reliable than polls. They give specific insight as to what is on peoples' minds, because “searching” is a much more deliberate task than just answering poll questions.

 

Girlawhirl can find out the top 100 most searched phrases of the day, any day, on Google Trends – whether they're about politics, news or just plain old gossip. And when she's looking for specific terms – i.e. McCain vs. Clinton vs. Obama – Girlawhirl just enters all three names and gets a graph showing the highs and lows for each search.

 

Yahoo!'s extensive Elections page compares the candidates side by side, including their “buzz level” on its Political Dashboard. The “buzz level” – or the search volume for each candidate – is updated every hour and posted based on daily averages. The information is also broken down by state. And if she jumps over to the Yahoo! Buzz site, Girlawhirl can see the top 10 searches of the day, and by plugging in the candidates' names, see which articles about them are receiving the most hits. Is it one featuring a candidate's latest campaign tactic or their healthcare plan that's piquing interest?  All of this is a good indicator of what voters interests are as they head to the polls.

 

So now instead of basing her political insights on a small sampling of voters, Girlawhirl has a lot more information right at her fingertips. And as the Conventions close in, Girlawhirl will definitely be using her new-found tools.

 

 

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